Work by Te Uru Kahika – Regional and Unitary Councils Aotearoa reports that around 675,000 people – one in seven New Zealanders – live in flood‑prone areas, and more than $213 billion in residential assets sit within these zones. The annual direct cost of flooding in New Zealand exceeds $160 million, with wider social and economic consequences extending well beyond the flood footprint.
As climate change intensifies rainfall and flood frequency, resilience is no longer just a protective measure; it is a core economic and infrastructure imperative.
Te Uru Kahika warns that flood risks are increasing faster than the capacity of existing systems to absorb them, asset values in flood protected areas have risen sharply, ageing schemes require major upgrades to maintain levels of service, and climate change is driving more frequent and severe events. At the same time, the limits of insurance as a risk‑transfer mechanism are becoming clearer. As flood risk becomes more predictable and concentrated, insurers are shifting toward risk‑based pricing, increasing premiums and, in some locations, withdrawing cover altogether. International evidence and domestic modelling indicate that without active risk reduction, insurance retreat could undermine community recovery, housing security, and economic confidence in many regions.
Research by the Infrastructure Commission published on 9 July 2026, focuses on damages to critical infrastructure. When the impact on New Zealand’s productive sector and the safety and security of communities is taken into account, Te Uru Kahika estimates that the damages could potentially increase 3-fold.
New Zealand’s existing flood protection network is made up of 367 flood protection schemes that protect approximately 1.5 million hectares of land, including many of the nation’s most productive and highly populated regions. With a combined capital value of $2.3 billion, these schemes generate estimated national benefits of $11 billion each year. Well-maintained and well‑targeted flood infrastructure is one of the most effective forms of public investment available, significantly reducing disaster recovery costs while contributing to the safeguarding communities, businesses, and lifeline infrastructure.
Tranche 2 projects in the pipeline
Te Uru Kahika identified 32 “Tranche 2” priority projects from a wider, nationally assessed pipeline of 85 projects across New Zealand. These priority projects will be co-funded by central and local government and are part of the established, nationwide initiative collectively referred to as Resilient River Communities (www.resilientrivers.nz). The announcement, made in October 2025, consists of a $97m package from the Regional Infrastructure Fund which will reduce flood risk to 30,000 homes and 350,000ha of land.
This co-investment pathway supports a coordinated, evidence‑based approach to flood resilience that treats prevention as national infrastructure.
The framework used to analyse and prioritise the projects emphasises consequence‑based assessment, prioritising protection where impacts on people, essential infrastructure, and high‑value assets would be most severe. Each project has a cost benefit ratio of $4 or greater, meaning that for every $1 invested they will deliver at least $4 of benefit.
The 32 Tranche 2 projects will be progressively completed over the next five years.